A new poll announces that age will be the deciding factor in the upcoming elections. No, not the candidates’ ages—the older McCain versus the forty-something Obama—but the voters’ collective age. The Gallup Poll, entitled, “Forty-Somethings May Hold Key to Election,” states that Obama and McCain will have to compete for favor among the forty-something demographic, since older voters lean toward McCain and Obama is the favorite among the younger crowd.

 

The Gallup survey, conducted among 10,000 registered voters, found the overall majority favoring Obama (47 percent) over McCain (42 percent). Obama holds the lead among voters ages 18 to 29 (59 percent versus 32 percent for McCain), while McCain leads among voters in their 60s (48 versus 38 percent). Among voters in their 70s and 80s, McCain also leads Obama.

 

However, among the 1,637 voters between the ages 40 to 49, the candidates fell at an exact tie (46 percent versus 46 percent). Does this mean the forty-something voters will decide the election?

 

“I think forty-somethings are looking for someone serious and someone tested when screening presidential candidates. They are old enough to have lost most of their youthful idealism but still hold on to the possibilities of what can be accomplished through dreams and hard work and could want someone with fresh and innovative ideas,” Dr. Sean Foreman, associate professor of political science at FL-based Barry University, says.

 

Obviously, Obama is closer in age to this demographic than McCain. “Being a forty-something himself should be an advantage for Senator Obama. People in their forties are usually in mid-career and often raising a family. As such, they are worried about the foundational aspects of the economy: jobs, housing prices, gas and energy prices, and tax policy,” Foreman explains.

 

While age may play a small role in terms of candidate identification, the issues will be what really matter. “Polls show voters are favoring Democrats on all of these issues in this anti-Republican year.  Still, I think that this age group will break down along party lines, and the relatively elder McCain and younger Obama will appeal to voters’ pocketbooks rather than to some popularly prescribed notions of maturity and experience,” Foreman adds.

 

Dr. Herb London, president of the Hudson Institute, and professor emeritus of New York University, agrees. “It’s silly to say that people will vote based on their age. It may be that Senator Obama has generated interest in youthful voters. However, it’s not clear that McCain cannot appeal to either youthful voters or elderly voters. In my judgment, people tend to vote on the basis of policies, not on the basis of age,” London contends.

Like Foreman, London argues that the election will come down to the issues. “Ultimately the decision to vote for Senator McCain or Senator Obama is who comes up with policies of interest to the voting public,” London explains. “The war in Iraq, the economic situation we face in the U.S., and the roiling of the credit markets are the issues that will be confronted by the American voting public. In the end the person in the judgment of the public that is capable of addressing these matters is the person they are likely to vote for.”

 

In fact, the poll announcement that forty-somethings will decide the election is “totally oversimplifying it,” argues Lenny Steinhorn, professor in the School of Communication at American University. If the deciding factor were to be age, then the focus is on the wrong group, he contends.

 

“What will decide the election in a far greater sense is the youth vote. The year 2004 turned out more voters than previous elections. Forty-somethings will vote in increasing numbers, but that is not much different than any other cohort; they have all turned out in greater numbers,” Steinhorn explains. “They would also have more Boomers right above them, and more thirty-somethings right below them. I don’t see forty-somethings being all that different from thirty-somethings or Boomers.”

 

Steinhorn is the author of The Greater Generation: In Defense of the Baby Boom Legacy (2006).

 

“The youth vote, and how many of them will turn out, will be the wild card,” Steinhorn says. “The youth is leaning toward Obama, who has shown weaknesses among the 65 and older group. There is usually a huge turnout of voters from the 65 and older group, higher than other cohorts, so they have disproportionate strength at the polls. The critical demographics will be the elderly and younger voters,” he states.

 

Anyway we look at it, there is so much time before the election, that it is still too early to tell which way the election will go, whether polls try to predict by age, race, or party affiliation.

 

“It is way too early to tell. The candidates still haven’t completely branded themselves with the American public. Each is trying to define himself before the other defines him and each is trying to define the other before the other can define himself,” Steinhorn says.

 

“This is what I call the ‘frame game.’ The frame game is the part of the campaign where each trying to frame the election, create a larger context of how they will reach out and communicate in the fall and reach voters,” he concludes.