The state of American security will be affected by changing demographics over the next 22 years, influencing the dynamics of international relations, and assuring the U.S. rank as top superpower, says the latest Public Policy and Aging Report (PP&AR).

 

One major issue to keep an eye on? Youth bulges, the “disproportionately high numbers of young people” in a given population, says report author Mark Haas, PhD. “There is a strong positive correlation between terrorism and youth bulges,” Haas, an assistant professor of political science at Pittsburgh, PA-based Duquesne University, says.

 

Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are all countries experiencing youth bulges, which contribute to economic unrest and general disapproval of political conditions. The potential volatility of an overtly young population is exacerbated by their status as singles—with no spouse or children to support, they are that much more likely to engage in radical political acts.

 

“Youth bulges facilitate recruits and sympathizers who will join radical leaders. Young people can’t find work, they have no assets, so they are more likely to follow radical ideology,” Haas explains, adding that numerous studies have link youth bulges to the proliferation of terrorism.

 

“Terrorism is more a function of economy than any other issue,” Bruce Fenton, founder and President of Atlantic Financial Inc., an independent capital management firm. “This ties in with demographics as demographics affect the economy greatly.”

 

Atlantic Financial works with corporate and individual clients, and focuses on global investing, particularly in the Middle East, Fenton says. “I was in Saudi Arabia last week—they are working very hard to become a leading global economy and provide opportunities for the many young people they have,” he explains.

 

Fenton agrees that economically depressed young people are especially vulnerable to being lured by radical terrorist groups. “People who are doing well economically are far less susceptible to terrorist recruitment,” Fenton says. “Also, people who are older certainly are less likely to become terrorists as a spouse and family tends to make people less interested in risking or giving their life for a cause.”

 

With his experience in the Middle East, Fenton imparts firsthand perspective on the economic and political issues facing its people. “Saudi Arabia is very wealthy and has potential for a great economic future—they are investing heavily in infrastructure and education and the society is transforming,” Fenton, who is editor of The Fenton Report, a wealth management magazine.

 

“Saudi, contrary to much US media, is not a terrorist nation but was, like us, a victim of terrorists in recent years. There have however been terrorists from Saudi, as is well-reported by the media,” Fenton continues. “The government is working hard to promote situations where this will not occur in the future.”

 

As for the other two nations mentioned as suffering from youth bulges and their related problems? “Iraq is a disaster and no one can say for sure how much more terrorism will grow as a result of the war. Pakistan will also depend on peace but, other than the sad events of recent months, has many positive economic factors similar to India, including demographics,” Fenton tells demo dirt.

 

Despite the possibility that diminished youth bulges could lessen the numbers of potential terrorists and radical supporters, the end of terrorism is not foreseen in the near future. “Is terrorism going to go away? No,” Haas says.

 

Terrorism is one aspect of the larger issue of overall national security, explains Haas, and the global population’s overall aging will have dire effects on several nations, but prove relatively beneficial for the United States. “We are entering a new demographic era in which great powers are growing old. Britain, China, France, Germany, the U.S., and Russia are all growing old at a fantastic rate,” Haas tells demo dirt.

 

“The good news for Americans is that the U.S. is likely to remain the world’s dominant power,” because other countries are not as prepared to handle their rapidly aging populations. “The U.S. is in better shape in terms of the aging problem,” Haas explains.

 

“The U.S. has the highest fertility rate, immigration rates, and is in a better position to deal with the aging problem because the pension assets are quite high," Haas states. "American citizens work longer and more hours than those in other countries. We have set aside money to deal with an aging population."

 

Other countries, says Haas, will face greater consequences as their populations grow older. What happens when a great number of citizens age at once? “The economy slows down, and the government has to pay unbelievably large sums of money to pay for the elderly.” As a result, Haas says, paying to care for the elderly will leave less money for discretionary spending. “You can only spend a dollar once,” Haas explains which leaves fewer funds to spend on military aggression.

 

By the year 2050, Russia’s working-age population (ages 15 to 64) is projected to shrink by over one-third (34 percent). Russia is already facing a population decrease of 700,000 people a year. China also faces major demographic changes by 2050; its median age at that time is expected to be 45.

 

Haas is quick to point out that whatever optimism Americans may experience must be tempered with realism. “The U.S. is in very bad shape. I don’t want to minimize how bad America’s aging problem is. It is just that other powers are in a worse position than we are,” Haas cautions.

 

The good news is that America will remain at the top of the game because, Haas explains, “Power is relative in international relations.”