A recent Gallup poll examined the reasons
why voters would choose one candidate over another, given a hypothetical two-candidate ballot listing the current forerunners
of their respective political parties. Democrats and independents leaning toward the Democratic Party, were asked, given the
choice between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who they would vote for and why. Republicans
and Republican-leaning independents were given a choice between former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John
McCain, to state who they would vote for, and to explain their reasons why.
When asked who they would vote for given
the choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, 56 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents voted for
Clinton, versus 37 percent favoring Obama. Six percent had no opinion.
For those Democrats who would choose
Clinton over Obama, 33 percent credit her experience and longer political history
as the reason why she would get their vote. Next, 21 percent of those favoring Clinton
state that they agree with her issues and agenda. Fourteen percent of that group state that her sex is the reason they would
choose her over Obama, while 11 percent state that unfamiliarity with Barack Obama is the reason he would not get their vote. Only 8 percent cite Clinton’s performance
in her current position as a senator of New York State
as a reason to put her in the White House.
Of Democrats who favor Obama, 18 percent
cite his likeability, and state that they simply “like him better” or “do not like” Sen. Clinton. Eighteen percent state that they agree with his stance on issues and like his agenda.
Thirteen percent are not turned off by his unfamiliarity, and rather would like to welcome a “fresh face” with
“new ideas”. Twelve percent again cited some distaste for Clinton,
stating that they would prefer Obama because “Clinton has too much baggage”
and they “don’t want another Clinton.” Interestingly, while
7 percent would vote for him over Clinton because “the country is not ready
for a woman president,” there is no equivalent conclusion regarding Obama’s race (e.g. “the country is not
ready for a black president”) among the group that favors Sen. Clinton.
Given a choice between Rudy Giuliani
and John McCain, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favored Giuliani at 54 percent, versus 39 percent for McCain.
Seven percent offered no opinion.
Rudy Giuliani’s leadership in the
aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks was cited as the top factor defining his qualifications for the presidency; 18 percent
of Giuliani supporters named this as the reason he would get their backing. As
a possible overlapping characteristic, 13 percent called the former New York City Mayor a “strong leader,” and
10 percent stated that he “did a good job” in his past political position. Ten percent of supporters stated that
they agreed with his views and agenda, while 10 percent preferred him because they consider McCain “too much of a moderate/maverick.” However, relatively few respondents stated an active dislike of McCain, as did many
Obama supporters, but rather a trust in Giuliani’s ability to lead based on his former career.
McCain supporters state that his longer
history in the political arena is a plus, with 19 percent stating that he is “more experienced” than Giuliani.
Eighteen percent state that they are simply more familiar with McCain than with Giuliani, so the former would get their vote.
Supporters also prefer his military background and knowledge of national defense (16 percent). Sixteen percent also stated that they agree with his views “other than moral,” while 11 percent
agree with McCain’s moral views and stance on abortion. (In February 2007, McCain stated that he believes Roe vs. Wade,
the landmark ruling that made abortion legal, should be overturned, and that he supports a woman’s right to choose only
in cases of rape, incest, and if the life of the mother is in danger. He also stated that he would support prosecution of
doctors who perform abortion, in the event that Roe vs. Wade is overturned, but that he would not support prosecution of the
woman obtaining the abortion. (Source: The Arizona Republic, McCain: Abortion Ruling Should
Be Overturned, by Jim Davenport for the Associated Press, February 19, 2007).
Overall, the candidates possess specific
qualities which guide their supporters in distinct ways. Hillary Clinton’s popularity lies in her political experience,
familiarity, knowledge, and expertise. Barack Obama’s popularity is due to voter expectations that he will offer a fresh
new perspective in politics, and, for those who dislike Clinton, much of his appeal is due to the fact that is not Hillary. Giuliani has gained the trust and respect of many with his performance as a leader following the
terrorist attacks of 9/11, which contributed to his image as a strong, resilient contender for president. McCain supporters
admire his military experience and commitment to national defense, and conservatives value his beliefs, though some remain
divided on his “moral” agenda.
