The Obama Phenomena

Obama, the Postmodern Candidate

At a recent lecture at Ohio Northern University by Gustavo Vega-Canovas, former economic advisor to past Mexican President Vincente Fox, and Canadian Political Science Professor Gilbert R. Winham of Dalhousie University, I said that Obama was a transformational candidate in the eyes of much of the world while McCain was a national or nationalist candidate who would inspire few people outside the US.

I also called Obama a nearly postmodern candidate because his mixed racial background, his early life beyond our borders, his worldwide educational and residential record, his father's African roots, and his multilayered name itself all seemed to transcend American politics.

The Gallup surveys are undoubtedly a bit dated, since much of their information preceded the US party conventions, and are a bit ambiguous because many people and certain countries do not feel this election will matter much to them. Still, the surveys show that almost all Europeans, most of Africa, much of Asia, and many in South America prefer Barack Obama even if they are not convinced the election matters much in the larger scheme of things.  Canada, Europe, as well as certain areas in Africa and Asia are extraordinarily pro-Obama. Even our closest ally in South America, Colombia, a country whose labor policies Obama has questioned, favors Obama over McCain 3 to 1, echoing most of  the rest of Central and South America even if most people have no opinion and think the elections will not affect them appreciably. The most recent polls for Colombia are certainly trending even more toward Obama despite McCain's more free trade orientation toward Colombia. Although Gustavo Vega-Canovas thought that Mexican opinion favored McCain, according to the Gallup Poll Obama was much more favored than McCain even if most Mexicans had no opinion and didn't think the elections would matter much.

Professor Gilbert R. Winham's views on Canadian opinion fit more closely with the Gallup results, but he clearly underestimated negative Canadian views toward the US reflected in the Gallup survey. He also was quite cautious in expressing Canadian pro-Obama opinion if the Gallup Survey is valid. Both Canadians and Mexicans favor Obama 3 to 1. but six times more Mexicans had no opinion than did Canadians. Mexican elite opinion may well be more likely to favor McCain, but most Mexicans are not in the elite and most have no opinion,

To me it seems obvious that many in the world will dramatically alter their views about America if they get a new face like Obama's on the cover of America. Increasingly, many people throughout the world have worried that America was becoming what Samuel P. Huntington once described as "the world's first rogue superpower." An Obama presidency would see that nightmare vanish immediately. Even if most of the world does not openly express such transformational hopes and knows Obama only superficially, Berlin's reception to Obama this summer is striking evidence that something exceptional might be possible.

Not that Obama is promising or even thinking of such a transformation, since that might well be the end of his chances for victory at home. The world sees only the external characteristics and superficial rhetoric of Obama. Perhaps no one knows the real Obama as Republicans claim. But the heightened hopes and expectations around the world may say much about the current global scene after eight years of war on terror, Iraq War, and apparent economic collapse. The changed face of America might simply be a sign for the world that a necessary change is possible.

Whether or not Obama is the vehicle to fulfill such expectations remains to be seen. Clearly, the very qualities which make Obama potentially transformational and almost postmodern pose potential problems for him in any election. The fact that America can produce such a candidate is clear evidence to the world that its assumptions about America need to be modified. His election just might become the catalyst for much more. Obviously, such a scenario would demand a truly global leader who could transcend national interests to an extent that the world would be ready to follow. Such a scenario may be a pipedream, but that may be what is called for. This may be the very moment and the opportunity that not even an Obama could sanely imagine.

If McCain Wins

Some people abroad do favor McCain but one suspects they know him even less than they know Obama. His election would signal business as usual for America and the world since McCain seems even more bellicose than the gradually evolving Bush. From the Georgia-Russia confrontation, to Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Venezuela, McCain seems tone deaf regarding the mood of the country and the world. Speaking loudly and carrying a big stick do not seem reassuring to many. Still, it seems doubtful whether the world really knows much about McCain. He is favored in the Philippines and the Republic of Georgia but almost nowhere else. "We are not all Georgians" except metaphorically perhaps because Georgia is not vital to American interests.

If McCain is elected, America will have another aging, wealthy, white, pseudo-Westerner in the saddle. America would probably not alter its policies much and that would be less than inspiring or reassuring to the rest of the world.

McCain’s Ties to Bush, and the Obama Trip

Certainly Bush's presidency bodes ill for anyone remotely resembling him, and McCain more than remotely resembles Bush. Privileged, moneyed, insiders, white, and pseudo Westerners are just a few similar attributes. Each is moved by feeling, instinct, and gut reactions rather than sensitive, cerebral, and nuanced qualities. McCain, the maverick, has altered too many of his iconoclastic positions to be able to distance himself from Bush. It is doubtful if many abroad know enough about McCain to accurately evaluate him. Rather, they see the external qualities of Obama and project their hopes, dreams, and resolved fears onto him.

Obama did not have to travel abroad this summer for the world to realize that he did not fit the usual American mold, that he transcended race, nationality, class, and ethnicity. His eclectic background is what the 21st century increasingly looks like or at least recognizes. Nations are not about to disappear but in Obama the world just might have a symbol and potentially a champion if he could just get elected. That would mean that America was again coming to question itself, to learn how to change in a changing world, to overcoming some of its native provincialism, and to again start to meet the challenges that its privileged position mandates. Arguably, America is the world's most modern and one of the most eclectic nations but it still harbors strong atavistic strains which Obama's candidacy could put to rest or reawaken in starker form.

The world's hopes, fears, and dreams are not all on the same page, but an Obama victory could well be the catalyst to a planetary transformation.  I believe that is what is needed, even though Obama has promised no such thing and much of the world (India, Pakistan, much of the

Middle East, and Africa) can't get too excited about the impact on them of an Obama victory. One does not possess a crystal ball and situations seldom bring forth exactly what is needed, but the potential for something dramatic is here. Many in the world sense it.

Obviously, an Obama transformation would not be unilateralist, nationalist, or bellicose. It would be gradual, subtle, and could only arise if enough people from enough lands sense that the time of necessary, seminal change had arrived. It is conceivable, but probably not likely. Still, that conception itself must count as be a big step in the right direction!

Obama’s Unique Background

His mixed race, his Kenyan father, his Muslim middle name, his African American ties, his Indonesian childhood, his Hawaiian young adulthood, his Kansas familial roots, his university background in Los Angeles, New York, and Boston, his teaching, legal, political, and community engagement experience in Chicago, his senatorial career in Washington, his national campaign experience, his works as an author, and his compelling charisma cannot help but resonate abroad.

A French-African friend of mine in Paris called me more this year than he has in the last decade, not because he misses our conversations but because he wants to talk about Obama and the election.

What the Obama Phenomenon Says About Us

I believe Obama could be transformational. His background is so eclectic and multifaceted.

Of course my reactions and much of world and national opinion is simply wishful thinking and projection, but maybe the Obama phenomenon is significant on a much broader scale that anyone could imagine. We may not be the people we have been waiting for. Certainly much of the world long ago gave up expecting anyone or anything to change much for them.

Obama may simply have given some people a sense that hopeful change was possible. If so, the Obama phenomenon may say much more about the plight of the world than about him. When some question Obama's record or motives, perhaps the real question is what the Obama phenomenon says about us. Whatever he may create or do is inextricably tied to the situation that brought him forth and the reception he received. The denouement cannot be predicted but we can at least hope that the man may come to fit the role.