Obama Mamas May Delay Babymaking

However, an announcement that the country has officially been in a recession since December 2007 has provoked a new look at this so-called Obama baby boom, though the recession announcement came as a surprise to few.

On November 5, the online Urban Dictionary added “Obama Baby,” to its lexicon, which, it explains, is a “child conceived after Obama was proclaimed President by way of celebratory sex, or any baby born under Barack Obama's term(s),” and for usage, includes “I was born July 2009. I'm an Obama baby!” as an example.

So does that mean the country can really look forward to many Obama-inspired changes—diaper changes?

No, Gronbach says. Despite the joy over our new president, he contends, the darkening mood over the sinking economy has overshadowed reports of election night loving.

“Absolutely positively you are going to see a slowdown,” he maintains. “I don’t believe you are going to see a boom, because the precedent that we can go back to would be the Great Depression.”

Despite initial post-election optimism, the dismal economy certainly has taken its toll on family planning, agrees Dowell Myers, Professor of Urban Planning and Demography at University of Southern California.

“I would have said yes to an Obama-inspired baby boom, but the financial crash and severe recession will set that back,” Myers says. “The net effect should be slightly reduced fertility, especially among women under age 30 who can afford to wait.”

The baby drought may not last too long, Myers adds. “However, if we can turn the economy around and show some substantial gains a couple of years from now, and if Obama is proving successful in his leadership, I would expect the Obama effect to kick in then,” he says.

The myriad of factors that people take into consideration when planning their families would outweigh any election night elation, Gronbach explains. “When people are uncertain about where an economy is going, if they will be working, how they will make a house payment or a car payment, they will wait until they can afford to have children,” he explains.

New reports have indicated that housing prices are dropping and will decrease even more dramatically over the next several months. Will the possibility of owning a house encourage eager couples to expand their families and move into larger dwellings?

“The housing price effect is complicated. Married couples depend on two earners to carry their mortgages. Declining prices might make that easier, but it also is deflating to existing homeowners,” Myers tells demo dirt. “Young, first-time buyers might leap at the opportunities, but if the wife cannot leave the workforce for 6 months that will discourage fertility.”

The question of population growth, Myers notes, may also be complex. “An apparent paradox is that if women are suddenly unemployed, their fertility could rise because they suffer less of an opportunity cost of not working,” he explains. “Women who have been delaying may leap at the opportunity to take a work furlough and instead make babies. Unfortunately, most of the current unemployment rise is among men and that does not offer any inducement to women. Having an unemployed husband is surely a major discouragement!”

Nevertheless, Gronbach argues, people who want children should go ahead and consider it, despite money worries. “Kids are wonderfully resilient. You can have them anytime; people were even having kids during times of war,” he advises.

Ken Gronbach’s The Age Curve: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm was recently published by the American Management Association and released in July 2008. Go to http://www.kgcdirect.com for more information.