Obama Style Optimism

Has our new President ushered in some good vibes?

Americans plan to be patient with the new President as he sorts out the country’s economic challenges, says a new AP poll examining U.S. optimism, with seven in ten stating that they expect progress to reasonably take more than a year. After years of feeling that the U.S. was on the wrong track, finally Americans feel that we are headed in the right direction.  

Nearly half of Americans (48 percent) state that the country is on the right track, while 44 percent disagree. Back in February, only 40 percent of respondents felt that the country was headed in the right direction, but today’s results reveal an even wider gap between the pre-Obama and post-election sentiment; there has been an astounding 31 point jump in feeling that the country is on the right path since the same question was posed of Americans last October. 

What is it about Obama that has encouraged such optimism in the face of adversity? “Obama has done a good job of speaking to folks in the middle. He really has reached out to more moderate Americans,” explains Robert Alexander, PhD, associate professor of political science at Ohio Northern University.

He has paid a price for appealing to the masses, Alexander adds. “This has cost him with more liberal members of the Democratic party and there is certainly a segment of the Republican party where he will never be able to do anything right,” he notes. “Nonetheless, most Americans are in the middle and I think they believe Obama is speaking to them.”

Paul Lachelier, assistant professor in the department of Sociology & Anthropology at Stetson University says the poll results don't reflect an overwhelming optimism; while fewer people are not optimistic than those who are, it is still a big number. While the optimistic make up nearly half at 48 percent, he says, another 44 percent still feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.

"There’s an increase in optimism, but still, less than half of Americans are confident about the U.S.’s direction," Lachelier says. "That’s not a resounding endorsement of anything."

This could also be an effect timing and circumstance, adds Caroline Heldman, PhD, assistant professor in the politics department at Occidental College. “While it shows great optimism for the first time in years, it also indicates that many Americans are still afraid about their economic well-being,” she says.

“President Obama is riding high waves of popularity after a very unpopular president, and the fact that he has taken quick action on many major policy issues gives people hope,” Heldman adds

The President has connected with the pubic in an incredibly personal and disarming manner, appearing on talk shows, discussing sports, and even photographed enjoying a beer at an NBA game, prompting at least one sports blogger to proclaim that the President “is a regular human being, just like you and me!”

“Obama has hit the airwaves to sell his policies in a way no other president has done in the past.  From picking his NCAA brackets, to appearing on the Tonight Show, Obama has worked to reach a new segment of Americans,” Alexander says.  

"I suspect that his support comes disproportionately from Democrats, then independents, but not conservatives, and conservative leaning independents," Lachelier maintains. 

Though he has won the election, Alexander says that his campaigning has not ended, and he continues to stay connected to citizens. “He has been engaging in a constant campaign for his policies. It was a matter of time before he put his vast email list to work and he has done so in reaching out to his campaign supporters,” Alexander adds. “Through email requests, he has worked to inform, solicit contributions, and even organizing canvassing campaigns in support of his policies.  If you didn’t know any better, you would think the November campaign was still in full swing.”

“I think we need to be cautious about the results reported here,” Lachelier contends. “As the retired welder who voted against Obama last November indicates, Obama is getting credit for taking action, but this does not mean Americans clearly or overwhelmingly support the substance of his policies. Most Americans know little about, and pay little attention to policy substance.” 

The support we see now, he adds, is “probably superficial” at least for that group of Americans who don’t strongly support Obama, but appreciate that he appears to be taking action.

That is not to say that we don’t have some reason to be optimistic, Lachelier says. "Personally, I think Obama is doing a variety of good things, but in the short and long term, the U.S. has a lot of serious problems, including unsustainable consumption rates (especially energy, for which we depend too much on foreign suppliers), environmental degradation, very high consumer debt, growing government debt, and costly military entanglements abroad," he explains. "This is not to mention problems many if not all nations are facing, notably including terrorism, weapons proliferation (especially insufficient control over nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons supplies and knowledge), worsening water shortages, and global warming."

If we can be optimistic, Lachelier adds, “It’s in our collective capacity to aggressively address these serious problems.” Additionally, the “collective will” can be very effective for change.

Like a doctor with a great bedside manner, Obama’s personality and charisma has managed to calm down anxious Americans. “He has demonstrated an intelligence and calmness that inspires trust.  I think Americans believe he is very smart and up to the job,” Alexander says. “His trip abroad did nothing to hurt this perception. Given the fawning by other world leaders, it was clear that Obama’s presence was one that others wanted to be in the shadow of.”  

As foreign leaders admire Obama, it has lifted America’s reputation in the eyes of citizens abroad, which adds to domestic optimism. “I think it is a good thing that the perception of America has gone up in the eyes of other countries,” Alexander says. “For this alone, I think we have good reason to be optimistic. That citizens are more optimistic about the future is further reason to feel good about the future. Confidence in leadership will produce greater optimism and I think it is fair to say that Obama has gained the confidence of large numbers of Americans.”

The role of public opinion can be a tricky one, Lachelier says. “Public opinion is a fickle beast, at least as measured by the less than ideal instrument of opinion polling. Yet public opinion is also a major force in modern democracies,” he explains. “The press and pundits are more reluctant to question a president with high approval ratings, but as soon as those approval ratings decline, the critics emerge, and the lower the approval ratings, the more vicious the critics become.”

Indeed, Heldman says, his popularity rating can change if things don't change. “If these policy remedies do not work, we will likely see a steep and steady decline in President Obama's popularity," she explains. "In short, a lot is riding on the effectiveness of his stimulus package.”

Overall, Alexander says, Obama is enjoying a “honeymoon period” and that it is lasting longer than it usually does for new Presidents, inviting a surprising comparison. “His numbers compare favorably with that of Ronald Reagan. Reagan also took the helm during a time of great anxiety when people were looking for change—a change for the better—a return to American prominence,” he explains. “Obama was beat up during the primaries for making the same type of comparison—between himself and Reagan—but I think it is certainly a fair one to be made.” 

“Napoleon once said that leaders are ‘dealers in hope,’” Alexander notes. “Obama, like Reagan, has inspired many that America’s better days lie ahead.”