As public opinion of the Democratic Party improves, views of the Republican Party have reached what Pew Research Center calls “historic lows.” More than half of Americans (53 percent) hold negative views of the GOP, while just 39 percent continue to regard the party favorably, says the Pew poll. As the Republican image plummets, the Democratic Party has been enjoying a steady surge in popularity, as a majority of Americans (57 percent) state that they hold positive views of this partisanship.

 

Even worse for the GOP, many Republicans have become disenchanted with their own party, with that favorability rating having fallen ten points since last year. Today, just under three-quarters (73 percent) of Republicans hold positive views of their party, compared with 83 percent in July 2007. Conservative Republicans have demonstrated slightly stronger disapproval, with a 13 point drop in favorability since last year (74 percent versus 87 percent last July).

 

With the Republican Party rapidly losing popularity, even amongst its own members, what does the upcoming Presidential election have in store for us? With Republicans expressing waning approval ratings of their own party, what will drive voter choices: the candidate or the party?

 

“Partisanship is extremely important,” says Kenneth F. Warren, Ph.D., professor of political science and political analyst. “It is just an electoral reality. Republicans vote for Republicans, and Democrats vote for Democrats.”

 

Despite the dwindling approval of the Republican Party, the choice of Barack Obama to run against John McCain will make for a tough race. “It’s going to be a real battle. Independents are really up for grabs. There is a lot Independent support for McCain and a lot of Independent support for Obama,” Warren explains.

 

“All signs point to a Democrat winning, but Democrats nominated a risky candidate; Obama is risky not just because of his race, but because he is very, very liberal,” Warren adds.

 

Ironically, Warren says, both candidates face identical challenges in terms of popularity. They both appeal to Independents, while they have problems within their own bases.

 

“McCain is not that religious, so any effort to show that he is religious is taken as posturing to win the Presidency,” which means that the Religious Right conservative Republicans are less likely to vote for him, Warren explains.

 

The typical McCain supporter, Warren says, is “a true-blue Republican, conservative, hawk, military-minded, and defense-minded.”

 

Racism will play a role, Warren adds, just as sexism played a role in Clinton’s downfall. Others who will vote for McCain will be those “who are skeptical about having a black president.”

 

Finally, there are will also be some McCain voters who just like the impression that he makes. “And then of course, some people who just like his image will vote for him,” Warren adds. “That’s not unusual.”

 

Unfortunately for Obama, his churchgoing won’t help him with any voters, religious or otherwise. The Reverend Wright controversy and recent Pastor Pfleger embarrassment “hurt him,” Warren says. “Wright scared whites who were on the fence, especially Reagan type of Democrats.”

 

While Hillary Clinton had enjoyed the support of “the blue collar, relatively uneducated labor Democrats, Obama is getting support from more affluent, more educated Democrats, the Starbucks crowd,” Warren contends. “He is doing very, very well among those with college degrees, and Clinton did well among relatively uneducated Democrats.”

 

As for those Democrats who had supported Hillary? Their vote may go to McCain now. “Those Democrats who supported Clinton are more likely to vote Republican,” Warren explains, adding that her target demographic are more likely to be Reagan Democrats, those working-class who will vote Republican due to their distaste for Obama’s liberalism.

 

Dr. Herb London, president of the Hudson Institute, maintains that these issues mean that partisanship will play a lesser role than personal appeal. “My suspicion is personal appeal will be far more important than party affiliation. Independents and former Reagan Democrats will vote for Senator McCain,” he contends. “Senator Obama represents the most radical wing of the Democratic Party so liberals and loyal supporters will vote for him. Whether he can generate moderates to vote for him remains to be seen.”

 

“Moderates in the Republican Party don’t have a choice. Either they sit on their hands and don’t vote or they vote for Senator McCain. They are not in a position to vote for Senator Obama,” London adds.

 

Since the Democratic hopefuls had such different demographics supporting them: Hillary's working class, and Obama's Starbucks crowd, does it mean danger for the party? Warren says there is a risk. “Those parties that are not unified don’t do well in the general election. This precedent goes all the way back to 1832; the party that is divided at convention time almost always loses. When parties are divided they tend to self-destruct and lose the election,” he warns.

 

Should Obama should invite Clinton to be his running mate? Not necessarily. While one advantage would be that she would “help unify the party and appeal to the base, there are more cons than pros,” Warren contends.

 

Her most recent misstep was to let leak her willingness to be Vice President. “It’s not cool to be outspoken and beg for the VP slot. It is unprecedented to be so outspoken about it. One reason people think she didn’t give a concession speech is because she wants to leverage herself to become VP,” Warren says.

 

Don’t forget how unpopular Clinton is in the polls. “She has very high negatives; 47% wouldn’t even consider voting for her. Obama, McCain, Huckabee never came close to the unfavorability rating that Clinton has garnered. It’s questionable whether she would help the ticket overall,” he explains.

 

And what does the latest Gallup poll of Democrats have to say? Half of Democrats (50 percent) say that Obama should choose Clinton as a running mate, while over a third (36 percent) maintain that he should steer clear of the famous former First Lady.

 

There are no clear predictions for the upcoming election, except that it will be very exciting to follow. “I expect it to be a close election because the two candidates have a uniquely similar problem with their bases, for naturally different reasons,” Warren maintains. “Obama doesn’t play that well among blue collar laborer voters, the Reagan Democrats. He is very liberal, and that will cause him some problems, as he is the most liberal in the Senate.”

 

“McCain will have a problem with the Religious Right, and the very orthodox, purist conservatives because he is known as being a maverick and has collaborated with Democrats,” Warren concludes. “There a lot of true blue conservatives who don’t like McCain.”

 

Just how close a race will this be? Gallup has just reported that 46 percent of respondents choose Obama, while 45 percent favor McCain.